The last couple of weeks have been absolutely action-packed in the NBA. We had an entertaining finals and then a week later, the NBA draft. That’s the pinnacle of 15 professional careers followed very closely by the start of 60 others. I think that we like to draw connections between those events too; if a team can draft a superduper star player, then that will put them on the list of annual contenders. That feels linear. Yet, realistically, I’d say the line to a championship looks more like a maze.
The Bucks just succeeded in that quest and Giannis Antentokoumpo was a gigantic reason for that. Still, it was not as simple as that. It’s like having the best pasta dinner of your life and then driving to a wheat field to point and say, you’re next. I went back and looked at the last 17 title teams and then analyzed their draft history for the prior 15 years to determine if I could find any connections that interested me. It turns out, it really matters who you draft!
So much has to go right for a team to win a title. You do have to draft well. You also have to make the right moves in free agency. You also have to NOT make other moves. You have to manage the salary cap. You have to keep those players happy. You have to hire the right coach for the right mix of guys. You have to pay referees off. You have to hope that KD’s foot is one size too big. You have to hope that Ray Allen can backpedal to the corner like a ballet dancer. You have to hope that Michael Jordan retires at the peak of his powers.
A similar amount of variables exist in player development. You have to be drafted to a franchise that can develop you. You have to have coaches that believe in you. You have to be able to handle having an incredible amount of money. You have to want to get better. You have to trust your teammates. You have to have the right people in your corner. You have to stay healthy. The list goes on and on. To push those two trajectories in parallel directions…the chances are not very high.
With basically 12 players on a roster, it makes sense that a third of the players would be guys that a team drafted. On top of that, there are players picked up in free agency and via trades. And yet, most teams in the last 10 years have needed to nail at least a couple of draft picks in order to succeed. The number taken seems to matter less than just finding that diamond regardless of the rough.
Let’s look at some of these teams. I will list the title winner and then list the players that played a key role (more than 5 min. per game) and were drafted by that team. I recognize that some of the players that these teams drafted were used in trades to get other players so, in essence, those players were helpful in their own way. I’m not counting that because 1.) that’s a sociopathic amount of research and 2.) that’s not how we talk about draft picks. On Thursday, Jay Bilas was not lauding Jalen Suggs’ ability to get traded for a superstar.
Format [Year – pick – name (playoff min/game) note]
2021: Milwaukee Bucks
2018 – 17 – Donte DiVincenzo (Injured for playoffs)
2013 – 15 – Giannis Antetokounmpo (38)
2020: Los Angeles Lakers
2017 – 27 – Kyle Kuzma (23) traded from the Nets on draft night
2019: Toronto Raptors
2017 – 23 – OG Anunoby (injured for playoffs)
2016 – 27 – Pascal Siakam (37)
2016 – Fred VanVleet (25) undrafted signing
2015 – 46 – Norman Powell (16) traded from Bucks on draft night
2018: Golden State Warriors
2017 – 38 – Jordan Bell (10) Traded from Bulls on draft night
2015 – 30 – Kevon Looney (18)
2012 – 35 – Draymond Green (39)
2011 – 11 – Klay Thompson (38)
2009 – 7 – Stephen Curry (37)
2017: Golden State Warriors
2017 – 30 – Damian Jones (5)
2017 – 38 – Patrick McCaw (12)
2015 – 30 – Kevon Looney (injured for playoffs)
2014 – James Michael McAdoo (4.3, I know I said 5) undrafted signing
2012 – 35 – Draymond Green (35)
2011 – 11 – Klay Thompson (35)
2009 – 7 – Stephen Curry (35)
2016: Cleveland Cavaliers
2015 – Matthew Dellavedova (12) undrafted signing
2011 – 1 – Kyrie Irving (37)
2011 – 4 -Tristan Thompson (30)
2003 – 1 – LeBron James (39) free agent signing technically??
2015: Golden State Warriors
2012 – 35 – Draymond Green (37)
2012 – 7 – Harrison Barnes (32)
2012 – 30 – Festus Ezeli (9)
2011 – 11 – Klay Thompson (36)
2009 – 7 – Stephen Curry (39)
2014: San Antonio Spurs
2013 – Aron Baynes (7) undrafted signing
2011 – 15 – Kawhi Leonard (32) traded from Pacers on draft night
2011 – 29 – Cory Joseph (5)
2007 – 28 – Tiago Splitter (22)
2001 – 28 – Tony Parker (31)
1999 – 57 – Manu Ginobili (26)
1997 – 1 – Tim Duncan (33)
2013: Miami Heat
2011 – 28 – Norris Cole (20) traded from Bulls and Timberwolves on draft night
2008 – 34 – Mario Chalmers (28) traded from Timberwolves on draft night
2007 – Joel Anthony (5) undrafted signing
2003 – Udonis Haslem (16) undrafted signing
2003 – 5 – Dwyane Wade (36)
2012: Miami Heat
2011 – 28 – Norris Cole (9) traded from Bulls and Timberwolves on draft night
2008 – 34 – Mario Chalmers (36) traded from Timberwolves on draft night
2007 – Joel Anthony (19) undrafted signing
2003 – Udonis Haslem (21) undrafted signing
2003 – 5 – Dwyane Wade (39)
2011: Dallas Mavericks
2006 – J.J. Barea (19) undrafted signing
1998 – 9 – Dirk Nowitzki (39) traded from Bucks on draft night
2010: Los Angeles Lakers
2006 – 27 – Jordan Farmar (13)
2005 – 10 – Andrew Bynum (24)
2004 – 27 – Sasha Vujacic (8)
2003 – 32 – Luke Walton (6)
1996 – 24 – Derek Fisher (33) Technically left for 3 years and then came back
1996 – 13 – Kobe Bryant (40) traded by Hornets on draft night
2009: Los Angeles Lakers
2006 – 27 – Jordan Farmar (13)
2005 – 10 – Andrew Bynum (17)
2004 – 27 – Sasha Vujacic (11)
2003 – 32 – Luke Walton (16)
1996 – 24 – Derek Fisher (29) Technically left for 3 years and then came back
1996 – 13 – Kobe Bryant (41) traded by Hornets on draft night
2008: Boston Celtics
2007 – 35 – Big Baby Davis (8) traded from SuperSonics on draft night
2006 – 21 – Rajon Rondo (32) traded from Suns on draft night
2006 – 49 – Leon Powe (11) traded from Nuggets on draft night
2004 – 25 – Tony Allen (4.3, but I loved him)
2003 – 27 – Kendrick Perkins (25) traded from Grizzlies on draft night
1998 – 10 – Paul Pierce (38)
2007: San Antonio Spurs
2006 – Fabricio Oberto (21) undrafted signing
2001 – 28 – Tony Parker (37)
1999 – 57 – Manu Ginobili (30)
1997 – 1 – Tim Duncan (37)
2006: Miami Heat
2003 – Udonis Haslem (30) undrafted signing
2003 – 5 – Dwyane Wade (42)
2005: San Antonio Spurs
2004 – 28 – Beno Udrih (11)
2001 – 28 – Tony Parker (37)
1999 – 57 – Manu Ginobili (34)
1997 – 1 – Tim Duncan (38)
2004: Detroit Pistons
2003 – 2 – Darko Milicic (1.5 min in 8 playoff games)
2002 – 23 – Tayshaun Prince (35)
2001 – 38 – Mehmet Okur (11)
1993 – 10 – Lindsey Hunter (12) Technically left for 3 years and then came back
Alright. I stopped in 2004 because I thought I already had a pretty good sample size and I was tired of cutting and pasting the Spurs. It is a fascinating list. Here are my main takeaways:
The 2004 Pistons swung very important moves like getting guys like Rip Hamilton and Ben Wallace early in their careers, but they didn’t draft them.
The Spurs nailed three picks and WOW did it pay off!
The 2011 Mavericks vs Heat series was seen as a superstar vs a superteam, but the Mavericks also put their team together with transactions rather than through the draft. Their signings just didn’t happen to be top 15 players.
27 and 28 popped up several times in this list. Is that a scientific correlation? Sure, why not. If we check this year’s draft, maybe we can catch a glimpse of the future. The Nets drafted Cam Thomas at 27 and the 76ers followed that up with Jaden Springer at 28. The Nets are the favorites in my mind, so there’s a real chance we add to that list. Honestly, who knows what will happen with the 76ers at this point.
I was mildly surprised by the lack of number one picks on this list. In the last 17 seasons, there were two teams that had a number one draft pick that helped them win a title: Tim Duncan and Kyrie Irving. That number becomes three if you count LeBron James on that same Cavs team. I was not sure what to do with him, so I included him. . If you expand that to lottery picks—1 through 14—the list balloons to 12 names. I suppose it is a good sign that that number is twice as many as that of the undrafted players that were signed by the team they aided in winning it all. Still, I am not sure whether this list is good news for Cade Cunningham or not?
LeBron James is important. That’s another takeaway. He was a number one pick and the most crucial player on two other title teams.
So, yes, drafting matters.
If a general manager can crush three drafts in a five-year span, getting maybe three top thirty players, that team is in a solid position, as the Spurs or Warriors did. Or, if a GM can nail one pick and get an MVP-caliber guy, then make solid moves to surround that person that can work too, like the Heat, Mavericks, and Bucks.
If you don’t draft well, you can be the 2020 Lakers and simply be a squad of mercenaries.
As I mentioned at the top, there are a nearly infinite amount of variables that have to go right to win an NBA championship. I recognize that this list is not exhaustive. The runners-up to these title teams are just as littered with lottery stars and excellent sleepers. NBA success should not be defined solely by the rings a player has won, yet I do find this data interesting to discuss. (Hit me up in the comments!)
In terms of titles, there is concrete optimism for those players that were taken on Thursday night. No matter where you were drafted, no matter what your scouting report says, there is a chance that you could be that next grain of wheat that makes a dynamite rotini.
Very revealing filter.